Loading required package: coda Loading required package: lattice Linked to JAGS 3.4.0 Loaded modules: basemod,bugs Loading required package: boot Attaching package: ‘boot’ The following object is masked from ‘package:lattice’: melanoma Loading required package: MASS Loading required package: segmented mixtools package, version 1.0.1, Released January 2014 This package is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. SES-0518772. **************** Cleaning data for K3 Simulation JAGS @ 4 Removing 0 of 10 essays for length. Calculating initial values for chain 1 ; K3 Simulation JAGS @ 4 number of iterations= 508 One of the variances is going to zero; trying new starting values. number of iterations= 87 number of iterations= 55 One of the variances is going to zero; trying new starting values. number of iterations= 69 number of iterations= 43 number of iterations= 41 number of iterations= 37 number of iterations= 37 One of the variances is going to zero; trying new starting values. One of the variances is going to zero; trying new starting values. One of the variances is going to zero; trying new starting values. One of the variances is going to zero; trying new starting values. number of iterations= 61 number of iterations= 210 Calculating initial values for chain 2 ; K3 Simulation JAGS @ 4 One of the variances is going to zero; trying new starting values. number of iterations= 26 One of the variances is going to zero; trying new starting values. One of the variances is going to zero; trying new starting values. One of the variances is going to zero; trying new starting values. One of the variances is going to zero; trying new starting values. number of iterations= 178 number of iterations= 155 One of the variances is going to zero; trying new starting values. One of the variances is going to zero; trying new starting values. number of iterations= 48 number of iterations= 59 number of iterations= 52 number of iterations= 23 number of iterations= 41 One of the variances is going to zero; trying new starting values. One of the variances is going to zero; trying new starting values. One of the variances is going to zero; trying new starting values. One of the variances is going to zero; trying new starting values. One of the variances is going to zero; trying new starting values. One of the variances is going to zero; trying new starting values. One of the variances is going to zero; trying new starting values. One of the variances is going to zero; trying new starting values. One of the variances is going to zero; trying new starting values. number of iterations= 73 number of iterations= 135 Calculating initial values for chain 3 ; K3 Simulation JAGS @ 4 number of iterations= 96 number of iterations= 32 One of the variances is going to zero; trying new starting values. number of iterations= 62 number of iterations= 38 number of iterations= 77 number of iterations= 93 number of iterations= 26 number of iterations= 33 number of iterations= 92 number of iterations= 117 Loading Model for K3 Simulation JAGS @ 4 module mix loaded module dic loaded Compiling data graph Resolving undeclared variables Allocating nodes Initializing Reading data back into data table Compiling model graph Resolving undeclared variables Allocating nodes Graph Size: 925 Initializing model Burn in iterations for K3 Simulation JAGS @ 4 **************** Learning hyperparameters for K3 Simulation JAGS @ 4 Attempt 1 Labeling components for level 2 model K3 Simulation JAGS @ 4 Labeling components for alpha0 Labeling components for mu0 Labeling components for tau0 Labeling components for beta0 Labeling components for gamma0 **************** Convergence diagnostics for K3 Simulation JAGS @ 4 Run Number 1 Iterations = 1:5000 Thinning interval = 1 Number of chains = 3 Sample size per chain = 5000 1. Empirical mean and standard deviation for each variable, plus standard error of the mean: Mean SD Naive SE Time-series SE 1126.1261 16.5487 0.1351 0.4549 2. Quantiles for each variable: 2.5% 25% 50% 75% 97.5% 1094 1115 1126 1137 1159 Potential scale reduction factors: Point est. Upper C.I. deviance 1.2 1.58 deviance 1213.52 Iterations = 1:5000 Thinning interval = 1 Number of chains = 3 Sample size per chain = 5000 1. Empirical mean and standard deviation for each variable, plus standard error of the mean: Mean SD Naive SE Time-series SE 13.69975 4.51517 0.03687 0.19236 2. Quantiles for each variable: 2.5% 25% 50% 75% 97.5% 6.606 10.471 13.073 16.308 23.998 Potential scale reduction factors: Point est. Upper C.I. alphaN 1.03 1.1 alphaN 544.7871 Iterations = 1:5000 Thinning interval = 1 Number of chains = 3 Sample size per chain = 5000 1. Empirical mean and standard deviation for each variable, plus standard error of the mean: Mean SD Naive SE Time-series SE alpha0[1] 0.38919 0.07694 0.0006282 0.005364 alpha0[2] 0.37195 0.09627 0.0007861 0.005859 alpha0[3] 0.17617 0.10107 0.0008252 0.008155 alpha0[4] 0.06269 0.04907 0.0004007 0.002886 2. Quantiles for each variable: 2.5% 25% 50% 75% 97.5% alpha0[1] 0.232308 0.34505 0.39337 0.43871 0.5307 alpha0[2] 0.096604 0.33769 0.38877 0.43133 0.5118 alpha0[3] 0.038537 0.09725 0.15719 0.23404 0.4165 alpha0[4] 0.005574 0.01327 0.06002 0.09187 0.1755 Potential scale reduction factors: Point est. Upper C.I. alpha0[2] 1.11 1.31 alpha0[3] 1.12 1.37 alpha0[4] 2.20 5.15 Multivariate psrf 1.98 alpha0[1] alpha0[2] alpha0[3] alpha0[4] 212.5415 365.3289 142.6925 199.3588 Iterations = 1:5000 Thinning interval = 1 Number of chains = 3 Sample size per chain = 5000 1. Empirical mean and standard deviation for each variable, plus standard error of the mean: Mean SD Naive SE Time-series SE mu0[1] -0.9438 0.1688 0.001378 0.02115 mu0[2] -0.2066 0.2226 0.001818 0.03413 mu0[3] 0.6773 0.5758 0.004701 0.04934 mu0[4] 37.3968 52.0953 0.425357 3.05017 2. Quantiles for each variable: 2.5% 25% 50% 75% 97.5% mu0[1] -1.2052 -1.0629 -0.9613 -0.84848 -0.4860 mu0[2] -0.6602 -0.3549 -0.2070 -0.05704 0.2038 mu0[3] -0.2999 0.2385 0.6441 1.08929 1.8618 mu0[4] 0.7654 1.7858 2.3039 88.71152 145.8485 Potential scale reduction factors: Point est. Upper C.I. mu0[1] 1.51 2.52 mu0[2] 1.14 1.43 mu0[3] 1.34 1.92 mu0[4] 6.65 40.59 Multivariate psrf 5.27 mu0[1] mu0[2] mu0[3] mu0[4] 58.13158 46.20921 156.17358 116.66563 Iterations = 1:5000 Thinning interval = 1 Number of chains = 3 Sample size per chain = 5000 1. Empirical mean and standard deviation for each variable, plus standard error of the mean: Mean SD Naive SE Time-series SE tau0[1] 1.56966 0.7908 0.006457 0.05485 tau0[2] 1.97801 1.1206 0.009150 0.07263 tau0[3] 0.03013 0.9773 0.007980 0.04469 tau0[4] 0.24993 0.9709 0.007927 0.04289 2. Quantiles for each variable: 2.5% 25% 50% 75% 97.5% tau0[1] 0.08499 1.0293 1.5329 2.1083 3.102 tau0[2] -0.44303 1.1833 2.0607 2.8737 3.773 tau0[3] -1.36443 -0.6423 -0.1864 0.4924 2.573 tau0[4] -1.54240 -0.4205 0.2126 0.8855 2.247 Potential scale reduction factors: Point est. Upper C.I. tau0[1] 1.36 1.94 tau0[2] 1.54 2.43 tau0[3] 1.24 1.81 tau0[4] 1.05 1.16 Multivariate psrf 1.55 tau0[1] tau0[2] tau0[3] tau0[4] 184.1405 178.9270 524.6791 2644.2083 Iterations = 1:5000 Thinning interval = 1 Number of chains = 3 Sample size per chain = 5000 1. Empirical mean and standard deviation for each variable, plus standard error of the mean: Mean SD Naive SE Time-series SE beta0[1] 0.3308 0.2467 0.002014 0.01808 beta0[2] 0.6371 0.2793 0.002281 0.02144 beta0[3] 0.7594 0.4518 0.003689 0.02930 beta0[4] 1.0730 1.1271 0.009203 0.04861 2. Quantiles for each variable: 2.5% 25% 50% 75% 97.5% beta0[1] 0.08045 0.2027 0.2846 0.3937 0.7846 beta0[2] 0.30647 0.4960 0.5922 0.7066 1.2300 beta0[3] 0.14099 0.4494 0.6706 0.9832 1.9297 beta0[4] 0.13186 0.4404 0.7846 1.3199 4.2373 Potential scale reduction factors: Point est. Upper C.I. beta0[1] 1.40 2.87 beta0[2] 1.13 1.26 beta0[3] 1.11 1.28 beta0[4] 1.29 2.16 Multivariate psrf 1.32 beta0[1] beta0[2] beta0[3] beta0[4] 142.5622 140.5993 289.5354 406.9764 Iterations = 1:5000 Thinning interval = 1 Number of chains = 3 Sample size per chain = 5000 1. Empirical mean and standard deviation for each variable, plus standard error of the mean: Mean SD Naive SE Time-series SE gamma0[1] 2.161 0.6540 0.005340 0.04900 gamma0[2] 1.767 0.6880 0.005617 0.04655 gamma0[3] 1.202 0.6906 0.005638 0.02875 gamma0[4] 1.566 1.3112 0.010706 0.04307 2. Quantiles for each variable: 2.5% 25% 50% 75% 97.5% gamma0[1] 1.1245 1.7340 2.073 2.497 3.703 gamma0[2] 0.6026 1.2725 1.727 2.193 3.200 gamma0[3] 0.2367 0.7291 1.051 1.541 2.969 gamma0[4] 0.1777 0.7268 1.308 2.011 4.749 Potential scale reduction factors: Point est. Upper C.I. gamma0[1] 1.01 1.03 gamma0[2] 1.05 1.15 gamma0[3] 1.09 1.25 gamma0[4] 1.12 1.13 Multivariate psrf 1.09 gamma0[1] gamma0[2] gamma0[3] gamma0[4] 192.5811 247.7080 585.1067 846.6469 Chains of length 5000 for K3 Simulation JAGS @ 4 did not converge in run 1 . Maximum Rhat value = 5.27104 . deviance [[ 1 ]] Mean SD Naive SE Time-series SE 1135.2533100 13.8733794 0.1961992 0.6347274 deviance [[ 2 ]] Mean SD Naive SE Time-series SE 1121.5164312 16.2428111 0.2297080 0.9625033 deviance [[ 3 ]] Mean SD Naive SE Time-series SE 1121.6085557 15.5046885 0.2192694 0.7300901 alphaN [[ 1 ]] Mean SD Naive SE Time-series SE 12.65018092 4.21791406 0.05965031 0.32402971 alphaN [[ 2 ]] Mean SD Naive SE Time-series SE 14.14661784 4.42538908 0.06258445 0.30364443 alphaN [[ 3 ]] Mean SD Naive SE Time-series SE 14.30243932 4.70412809 0.06652642 0.36852972 alpha0 [[ 1 ]] Mean SD Naive SE Time-series SE alpha0[1] 0.37033570 0.069352418 9.807913e-04 0.0096366441 alpha0[2] 0.40346192 0.058460865 8.267615e-04 0.0049064896 alpha0[3] 0.21510594 0.062952661 8.902851e-04 0.0095367573 alpha0[4] 0.01109644 0.005057361 7.152189e-05 0.0004806589 alpha0 [[ 2 ]] Mean SD Naive SE Time-series SE alpha0[1] 0.42276789 0.06076772 0.0008593853 0.005997118 alpha0[2] 0.34551892 0.11431937 0.0016167200 0.015062703 alpha0[3] 0.14678667 0.11196353 0.0015834035 0.017532320 alpha0[4] 0.08492652 0.03200769 0.0004526571 0.004601311 alpha0 [[ 3 ]] Mean SD Naive SE Time-series SE alpha0[1] 0.37446485 0.08693295 0.0012294176 0.011407546 alpha0[2] 0.36686484 0.09800919 0.0013860592 0.007612494 alpha0[3] 0.16661572 0.10807349 0.0015283899 0.014149815 alpha0[4] 0.09205459 0.04643714 0.0006567204 0.007318320 mu0 [[ 1 ]] Mean SD Naive SE Time-series SE mu0[1] -1.0662576 0.1097825 0.001552559 0.01984019 mu0[2] -0.1465521 0.1767230 0.002499241 0.07259284 mu0[3] 1.0652202 0.4637973 0.006559084 0.05298287 mu0[4] 108.3786688 24.1467506 0.341486622 9.14979072 mu0 [[ 2 ]] Mean SD Naive SE Time-series SE mu0[1] -0.9201792 0.1113542 0.001574787 0.02902040 mu0[2] -0.1632881 0.2326594 0.003290301 0.04685344 mu0[3] 0.4424482 0.4836252 0.006839494 0.11864909 mu0[4] 1.9212798 0.5119587 0.007240190 0.08982506 mu0 [[ 3 ]] Mean SD Naive SE Time-series SE mu0[1] -0.8448430 0.1889137 0.002671643 0.05282281 mu0[2] -0.3099789 0.2171351 0.003070754 0.05493190 mu0[3] 0.5242186 0.5625934 0.007956272 0.07091874 mu0[4] 1.8904414 0.6162968 0.008715754 0.07013495 tau0 [[ 1 ]] Mean SD Naive SE Time-series SE tau0[1] 1.335447635 0.6248326 0.008836468 0.07273548 tau0[2] 2.590857876 0.7498091 0.010603901 0.10161123 tau0[3] -0.526243375 0.4443937 0.006284677 0.02728502 tau0[4] 0.006016585 0.9995740 0.014136111 0.02064357 tau0 [[ 2 ]] Mean SD Naive SE Time-series SE tau0[1] 2.1077021 0.7430614 0.01050848 0.12259673 tau0[2] 1.0946798 0.8955659 0.01266522 0.09921992 tau0[3] 0.2189544 1.0218395 0.01445099 0.09840630 tau0[4] 0.4934597 0.9633978 0.01362450 0.11258392 tau0 [[ 3 ]] Mean SD Naive SE Time-series SE tau0[1] 1.2658188 0.7050277 0.009970598 0.08217566 tau0[2] 2.2484886 1.0837061 0.015325919 0.16525493 tau0[3] 0.3976911 1.0694928 0.015124912 0.08686614 tau0[4] 0.2503039 0.8843587 0.012506721 0.05877080 beta0 [[ 1 ]] Mean SD Naive SE Time-series SE beta0[1] 0.2034804 0.1123174 0.001588408 0.01535704 beta0[2] 0.5809547 0.1069458 0.001512441 0.02479448 beta0[3] 0.7071138 0.3413779 0.004827813 0.03027223 beta0[4] 1.5432868 1.6970083 0.023999322 0.11491158 beta0 [[ 2 ]] Mean SD Naive SE Time-series SE beta0[1] 0.3239620 0.1218325 0.001722971 0.02014579 beta0[2] 0.6474863 0.2601681 0.003679332 0.03384960 beta0[3] 0.6657901 0.3903659 0.005520608 0.06611718 beta0[4] 0.9003827 0.5250916 0.007425917 0.07631544 beta0 [[ 3 ]] Mean SD Naive SE Time-series SE beta0[1] 0.4649000 0.3476135 0.004915997 0.04797583 beta0[2] 0.6827504 0.3868145 0.005470383 0.04876493 beta0[3] 0.9053032 0.5574137 0.007883021 0.04936400 beta0[4] 0.7753006 0.5627461 0.007958432 0.04730091 gamma0 [[ 1 ]] Mean SD Naive SE Time-series SE gamma0[1] 2.198249 0.6143487 0.008688203 0.06651384 gamma0[2] 1.603170 0.5561426 0.007865045 0.05933801 gamma0[3] 1.006536 0.4032818 0.005703265 0.02668372 gamma0[4] 1.637056 1.8886696 0.026709822 0.09968434 gamma0 [[ 2 ]] Mean SD Naive SE Time-series SE gamma0[1] 2.074513 0.6634905 0.009383172 0.09999466 gamma0[2] 1.925693 0.6798433 0.009614437 0.06509878 gamma0[3] 1.364593 0.8090636 0.011441887 0.05941153 gamma0[4] 1.561895 0.9227686 0.013049918 0.06470969 gamma0 [[ 3 ]] Mean SD Naive SE Time-series SE gamma0[1] 2.209210 0.6741416 0.009533802 0.08477034 gamma0[2] 1.772688 0.7723339 0.010922451 0.10835727 gamma0[3] 1.233927 0.7402130 0.010468192 0.05656530 gamma0[4] 1.499055 0.8546966 0.012087235 0.05068786 **************** Learning hyperparameters for K3 Simulation JAGS @ 4 Attempt 2 Labeling components for level 2 model K3 Simulation JAGS @ 4 Labeling components for alpha0 Labeling components for mu0 Labeling components for tau0 Labeling components for beta0 Labeling components for gamma0 **************** Convergence diagnostics for K3 Simulation JAGS @ 4 Run Number 2 Iterations = 1:15000 Thinning interval = 1 Number of chains = 3 Sample size per chain = 15000 1. Empirical mean and standard deviation for each variable, plus standard error of the mean: Mean SD Naive SE Time-series SE 1.125e+03 1.634e+01 7.705e-02 3.763e-01 2. Quantiles for each variable: 2.5% 25% 50% 75% 97.5% 1094 1114 1125 1136 1158 Potential scale reduction factors: Point est. Upper C.I. deviance 1.04 1.14 deviance 1869.272 Iterations = 1:15000 Thinning interval = 1 Number of chains = 3 Sample size per chain = 15000 1. Empirical mean and standard deviation for each variable, plus standard error of the mean: Mean SD Naive SE Time-series SE 13.63330 4.52467 0.02133 0.12796 2. Quantiles for each variable: 2.5% 25% 50% 75% 97.5% 6.547 10.366 13.040 16.296 23.948 Potential scale reduction factors: Point est. Upper C.I. alphaN 1.01 1.02 alphaN 1244.219 Iterations = 1:15000 Thinning interval = 1 Number of chains = 3 Sample size per chain = 15000 1. Empirical mean and standard deviation for each variable, plus standard error of the mean: Mean SD Naive SE Time-series SE alpha0[1] 0.36547 0.11277 0.0005316 0.005883 alpha0[2] 0.37231 0.10528 0.0004963 0.003487 alpha0[3] 0.18079 0.12018 0.0005665 0.005996 alpha0[4] 0.08143 0.05701 0.0002688 0.003395 2. Quantiles for each variable: 2.5% 25% 50% 75% 97.5% alpha0[1] 0.013848 0.33116 0.38369 0.4335 0.5226 alpha0[2] 0.060996 0.33944 0.39173 0.4362 0.5185 alpha0[3] 0.021047 0.09242 0.15292 0.2403 0.4620 alpha0[4] 0.006639 0.03580 0.07538 0.1152 0.2141 Potential scale reduction factors: Point est. Upper C.I. alpha0[2] 1.05 1.15 alpha0[3] 1.03 1.08 alpha0[4] 1.14 1.39 Multivariate psrf 1.16 alpha0[1] alpha0[2] alpha0[3] alpha0[4] 394.7358 1109.3530 433.4133 354.9371 Iterations = 1:15000 Thinning interval = 1 Number of chains = 3 Sample size per chain = 15000 1. Empirical mean and standard deviation for each variable, plus standard error of the mean: Mean SD Naive SE Time-series SE mu0[1] -1.2150 1.4228 0.006707 0.07437 mu0[2] -0.3380 0.2764 0.001303 0.02410 mu0[3] 0.5875 0.6240 0.002941 0.03488 mu0[4] 18.9368 40.6314 0.191538 12.88966 2. Quantiles for each variable: 2.5% 25% 50% 75% 97.5% mu0[1] -4.5845 -1.0992 -1.0137 -0.9186 -0.6544 mu0[2] -1.0257 -0.4661 -0.3045 -0.1673 0.1599 mu0[3] -0.4498 0.1053 0.5443 1.0395 1.8466 mu0[4] 0.6985 1.6094 2.0506 2.6126 139.7275 Potential scale reduction factors: Point est. Upper C.I. mu0[1] 1.29 2.06 mu0[2] 1.07 1.21 mu0[3] 1.10 1.28 mu0[4] 1.77 8.04 Multivariate psrf 1.59 mu0[1] mu0[2] mu0[3] mu0[4] 259.2391 147.2196 326.2960 267.2676 Iterations = 1:15000 Thinning interval = 1 Number of chains = 3 Sample size per chain = 15000 1. Empirical mean and standard deviation for each variable, plus standard error of the mean: Mean SD Naive SE Time-series SE tau0[1] 1.4358 0.8286 0.003906 0.03750 tau0[2] 1.8919 1.0660 0.005025 0.05642 tau0[3] 0.3215 1.0616 0.005004 0.04485 tau0[4] 0.1644 0.8797 0.004147 0.02350 2. Quantiles for each variable: 2.5% 25% 50% 75% 97.5% tau0[1] -0.4230 0.9646 1.46226 1.9802 2.942 tau0[2] -0.3956 1.1700 1.95525 2.7039 3.668 tau0[3] -1.3261 -0.4473 0.13766 0.9464 2.757 tau0[4] -1.4068 -0.4358 0.09689 0.7104 2.064 Potential scale reduction factors: Point est. Upper C.I. tau0[1] 1.09 1.28 tau0[2] 1.10 1.31 tau0[3] 1.01 1.04 tau0[4] 1.02 1.08 Multivariate psrf 1.14 tau0[1] tau0[2] tau0[3] tau0[4] 499.0529 354.3414 587.4839 2440.2879 Iterations = 1:15000 Thinning interval = 1 Number of chains = 3 Sample size per chain = 15000 1. Empirical mean and standard deviation for each variable, plus standard error of the mean: Mean SD Naive SE Time-series SE beta0[1] 0.3658 0.4530 0.002135 0.02154 beta0[2] 0.6086 0.2835 0.001337 0.01050 beta0[3] 0.7847 0.4711 0.002221 0.01721 beta0[4] 0.9191 0.9879 0.004657 0.03965 2. Quantiles for each variable: 2.5% 25% 50% 75% 97.5% beta0[1] 0.07951 0.1862 0.2667 0.3772 1.473 beta0[2] 0.24226 0.4703 0.5681 0.6862 1.221 beta0[3] 0.15028 0.4700 0.6881 1.0104 1.942 beta0[4] 0.12515 0.3948 0.6755 1.1269 3.248 Potential scale reduction factors: Point est. Upper C.I. beta0[1] 1.11 1.21 beta0[2] 1.00 1.01 beta0[3] 1.01 1.03 beta0[4] 1.22 1.65 Multivariate psrf 1.07 beta0[1] beta0[2] beta0[3] beta0[4] 399.0488 817.6208 769.3570 622.5204 Iterations = 1:15000 Thinning interval = 1 Number of chains = 3 Sample size per chain = 15000 1. Empirical mean and standard deviation for each variable, plus standard error of the mean: Mean SD Naive SE Time-series SE gamma0[1] 2.178 0.7341 0.003461 0.02741 gamma0[2] 1.862 0.7599 0.003582 0.03344 gamma0[3] 1.329 0.7891 0.003720 0.02400 gamma0[4] 1.484 1.1685 0.005508 0.02821 2. Quantiles for each variable: 2.5% 25% 50% 75% 97.5% gamma0[1] 0.6968 1.7398 2.101 2.547 3.823 gamma0[2] 0.5175 1.3604 1.808 2.291 3.541 gamma0[3] 0.2080 0.7660 1.191 1.752 3.248 gamma0[4] 0.1802 0.7229 1.261 1.922 4.192 Potential scale reduction factors: Point est. Upper C.I. gamma0[1] 1.01 1.02 gamma0[2] 1.01 1.03 gamma0[3] 1.01 1.02 gamma0[4] 1.04 1.04 Multivariate psrf 1.02 gamma0[1] gamma0[2] gamma0[3] gamma0[4] 781.1482 537.5949 1124.3541 1746.6891 Chains of length 10000 for K3 Simulation JAGS @ 4 did not converge in run 2 . Maximum Rhat value = 1.58872 . deviance [[ 1 ]] Mean SD Naive SE Time-series SE 1129.5744501 15.6445611 0.1277373 0.7071743 deviance [[ 2 ]] Mean SD Naive SE Time-series SE 1122.7725211 16.4569028 0.1343700 0.6613718 deviance [[ 3 ]] Mean SD Naive SE Time-series SE 1123.0760890 16.0085993 0.1307097 0.5804264 alphaN [[ 1 ]] Mean SD Naive SE Time-series SE 13.8072879 4.5087394 0.0368137 0.2181013 alphaN [[ 2 ]] Mean SD Naive SE Time-series SE 13.95366267 4.57705003 0.03737146 0.22094285 alphaN [[ 3 ]] Mean SD Naive SE Time-series SE 13.13895331 4.44581669 0.03629994 0.22578737 alpha0 [[ 1 ]] Mean SD Naive SE Time-series SE alpha0[1] 0.33999448 0.14325242 0.0011696511 0.012848343 alpha0[2] 0.39663377 0.09233825 0.0007539386 0.003874131 alpha0[3] 0.20405934 0.12629422 0.0010311880 0.009186203 alpha0[4] 0.05931241 0.06876340 0.0005614508 0.008503821 alpha0 [[ 2 ]] Mean SD Naive SE Time-series SE alpha0[1] 0.39333309 0.09768140 0.0007975653 0.010495380 alpha0[2] 0.34734189 0.11600831 0.0009472039 0.008002243 alpha0[3] 0.17149420 0.12367086 0.0010097683 0.012839971 alpha0[4] 0.08783082 0.04191066 0.0003421991 0.003195477 alpha0 [[ 3 ]] Mean SD Naive SE Time-series SE alpha0[1] 0.36308738 0.08158842 0.0006661666 0.006018002 alpha0[2] 0.37295427 0.10025857 0.0008186078 0.005509843 alpha0[3] 0.16682177 0.10612111 0.0008664752 0.008618081 alpha0[4] 0.09713658 0.04990532 0.0004074752 0.004603306 mu0 [[ 1 ]] Mean SD Naive SE Time-series SE mu0[1] -1.5952894 2.3382934 0.019092086 0.20386709 mu0[2] -0.3802546 0.3075674 0.002511277 0.05570042 mu0[3] 0.7969876 0.7498466 0.006122472 0.07156382 mu0[4] 52.9897026 56.6808330 0.462797064 38.66892051 mu0 [[ 2 ]] Mean SD Naive SE Time-series SE mu0[1] -1.0449545 0.5304276 0.004330924 0.08364791 mu0[2] -0.2485194 0.2571570 0.002099678 0.03133073 mu0[3] 0.4656593 0.5075040 0.004143753 0.06303001 mu0[4] 1.9091562 0.5487977 0.004480914 0.05784363 mu0 [[ 3 ]] Mean SD Naive SE Time-series SE mu0[1] -1.0047127 0.3267978 0.002668293 0.03494126 mu0[2] -0.3852572 0.2376050 0.001940037 0.03381928 mu0[3] 0.4999566 0.5309254 0.004334988 0.04310970 mu0[4] 1.9116445 0.6410391 0.005234062 0.04844356 tau0 [[ 1 ]] Mean SD Naive SE Time-series SE tau0[1] 1.291136718 0.8539079 0.006972129 0.06023741 tau0[2] 1.939570090 0.9668236 0.007894081 0.09935288 tau0[3] 0.169615453 1.0907015 0.008905541 0.09067552 tau0[4] 0.003158664 0.8991750 0.007341733 0.02167087 tau0 [[ 2 ]] Mean SD Naive SE Time-series SE tau0[1] 1.7514855 0.833540 0.006805826 0.08049317 tau0[2] 1.4973985 1.086211 0.008868872 0.11256495 tau0[3] 0.3623355 1.017511 0.008307940 0.07396238 tau0[4] 0.3216981 0.865736 0.007068705 0.05453318 tau0 [[ 3 ]] Mean SD Naive SE Time-series SE tau0[1] 1.2648116 0.6971022 0.005691816 0.05045803 tau0[2] 2.2387777 1.0082844 0.008232607 0.07813353 tau0[3] 0.4325258 1.0578322 0.008637164 0.06643484 tau0[4] 0.1682150 0.8443173 0.006893822 0.03908520 beta0 [[ 1 ]] Mean SD Naive SE Time-series SE beta0[1] 0.4575374 0.6210434 0.005070798 0.04501339 beta0[2] 0.5899922 0.2832186 0.002312470 0.01407898 beta0[3] 0.8000418 0.5032704 0.004109186 0.03246989 beta0[4] 1.2271830 1.4812221 0.012094128 0.09929465 beta0 [[ 2 ]] Mean SD Naive SE Time-series SE beta0[1] 0.3270787 0.3565485 0.002911206 0.03712110 beta0[2] 0.6205230 0.2777566 0.002267873 0.01820646 beta0[3] 0.7338283 0.4062895 0.003317340 0.03018367 beta0[4] 0.7760147 0.5529066 0.004514463 0.05800322 beta0 [[ 3 ]] Mean SD Naive SE Time-series SE beta0[1] 0.3126519 0.2999307 0.002448924 0.02779528 beta0[2] 0.6154034 0.2886202 0.002356574 0.02150012 beta0[3] 0.8202932 0.4934220 0.004028774 0.02645277 beta0[4] 0.7542128 0.5343466 0.004362922 0.03039178 gamma0 [[ 1 ]] Mean SD Naive SE Time-series SE gamma0[1] 2.128390 0.8111566 0.006623066 0.04000983 gamma0[2] 1.951366 0.7564376 0.006176287 0.06688172 gamma0[3] 1.354430 0.7348207 0.005999786 0.04586131 gamma0[4] 1.467626 1.4760907 0.012052230 0.04879849 gamma0 [[ 2 ]] Mean SD Naive SE Time-series SE gamma0[1] 2.157395 0.6830943 0.005577442 0.04878890 gamma0[2] 1.860659 0.7539953 0.006156346 0.05196983 gamma0[3] 1.377654 0.8305639 0.006781526 0.04186724 gamma0[4] 1.512674 0.9115798 0.007443018 0.04191520 gamma0 [[ 3 ]] Mean SD Naive SE Time-series SE gamma0[1] 2.248204 0.6959224 0.005682183 0.05274452 gamma0[2] 1.774436 0.7588602 0.006196068 0.05376912 gamma0[3] 1.254943 0.7937288 0.006480769 0.03645408 gamma0[4] 1.470915 1.0417682 0.008506002 0.05500377 MCMC run did not converge, proceeding anyway. Learning parameters for K3 Simulation JAGS @ 4 Labeling components for K3 Simulation JAGS @ 4 Labeling components for pi Labeling components for mu Labeling components for tau Calculating model fit indexes for K3 Simulation JAGS @ 4 lppd pWAIC1 WAIC1 pWAIC2 WAIC2 -529.74118 63.75264 1186.98764 63.75264 1186.98764 lppd lppd.bayes pDIC DIC pDICalt DICalt -561.6175 -719.9302 -316.6253 806.6097 122.9627 1685.7857 Analaysis complete for K3 Simulation JAGS @ 4 > proc.time() user system elapsed 2998.611 6.707 3006.426